RailTC Prediction Methodology

1. Inputs We Consider

RailTC combines current ticket state with route-pattern context. We do not rely on a single factor like only WL number.

• Current status and waitlist progression context (WL/RAC/CNF transition behavior).
• Quota behavior differences (for example GNWL vs RLWL style movement).
• Class-level cancellation tendencies and seat-release patterns.
• Time left to chart preparation, because volatility increases near charting.
• Route- and train-specific historical outcome baselines from verified records.

2. Scoring Framework

We convert the inputs into a probability score and then map it into user-friendly confidence bands. The mapped band is designed for decision support, not guaranteed travel authority.

3. Why Medium Is Not Scored As Correct/Incorrect

Medium predictions represent uncertainty buckets where final outcomes can swing quickly due to late cancellations or operational changes. To avoid misleading accuracy claims, RailTC treats these as "Not Scored" in strict accuracy accounting.

You can review this policy on the Accuracy page where scored outcomes are separated from uncertain cases.

4. Verification And Feedback Loop

• Prediction is generated for active PNR state.
• After chart preparation, final outcome is captured when available.
• Outcome is matched against prediction banding policy.
• Aggregate performance is published publicly on the accuracy dashboard.
• Thresholds are tuned conservatively to reduce false confidence.

5. What We Do Not Use

• No scraping or publishing of sensitive passenger personal details for prediction copy.
• No paid "guarantee" logic claiming final chart control.
• No hidden upsell dependency to unlock core risk labeling.

6. Practical Limits

Final chart authority remains with Indian Railways. Sudden operational interventions, quota shifts, or exceptional-day demand can still produce outlier results. RailTC is best used as a planning signal, not as a legal travel confirmation document.

7. How To Use This In Real Decisions

• If score is high, continue monitoring but keep normal travel plan.
• If score is medium, delay irreversible expenses and monitor chart updates.
• If score is risky, arrange backup transport early to avoid last-minute surge prices.
• For booking-stage decisions, use Pre-Booking Analysis.