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Accuracy · सटीकता

We don't just guess. We verify.

RailTC continuously tracks predictions against real chart outcomes to ensure transparency and reliability.

82.3%
Accuracy (last 30 days)All-time: 89.5% · Safe + Risky bands only
Journeys Verified
445884
Total Tracked
486969

Accuracy by Confidence

Safe
94.2%
115571 predictions

Safe Predictions

Predictions that ticket will confirm

Risky
49.5%
13497 predictions

Risky Predictions

Predictions with weak confirmation outlook

Uncertain
Not counted
195786 predictions

Uncertain Zone

Borderline cases. Tracked publicly, but excluded from the headline accuracy figure so uncertain outcomes do not inflate the score. Improving Medium is an active modeling focus.

Recent Verifications

Live Data

  • 22428 BHRIGU SF EXP

    Correct31 Oct 2026 · SL · GN · booked WL 0Prediction Safe (95%) · Result RAC

  • 15657 BRAHMPUTRA MAIL

    Not counted31 Oct 2026 · 3A · GN · booked WL 42Prediction Medium (24.2%) · Result WL

  • 14010 CHAMPRN SATYGRH

    Not counted31 Oct 2026 · 3A · GN · booked WL 11Prediction Medium (17.2%) · Result WL

  • 12430 NDLS LKO AC EXP

    Correct31 Oct 2026 · 3A · GN · booked WL 29Prediction Safe (76.4%) · Result RAC

  • 13330 GANGADAMODAR EX

    Correct31 Oct 2026 · SL · GN · booked WL 0Prediction Safe (95%) · Result RAC

  • 14010 CHAMPRN SATYGRH

    Correct31 Oct 2026 · 1A · GN · booked WL 4Prediction Safe (75.2%) · Result CNF

  • 22428 BHRIGU SF EXP

    Not counted31 Oct 2026 · 3A · GN · booked WL 30Prediction Medium (26.1%) · Result RAC

  • 19803 KOTA SVDK EXP

    Not counted31 Oct 2026 · SL · GN · booked WL 12Prediction Medium (23%) · Result CNF

  • 14010 CHAMPRN SATYGRH

    Missed31 Oct 2026 · SL · GN · booked WL 46Prediction Risky (11.6%) · Result RAC

  • 12430 NDLS LKO AC EXP

    Not counted31 Oct 2026 · 3E · GN · booked WL 30Prediction Medium (19.3%) · Result RAC

  • 22461 SHRI SHAKTI EXP

    Not counted31 Oct 2026 · 2A · GN · booked WL 4Prediction Medium (63%) · Result CNF

  • 17058 DEVAGIRI EXP

    Not counted31 Oct 2026 · SL · GN · booked WL 20Prediction Medium (29.6%) · Result RAC

* We automatically check PNR status after chart preparation to verify our predictions.

Accuracy Over Time

Weekly accuracy trend showing how our model improves with more data.

75%80%85%90%95%100%All-time 89.5%W3 AugW5 AugW2 SepW4 SepW2 OctW4 Oct
Weekly accuracy (Safe + Risky)All-time 89.5%

W3 Oct: 81.1% accuracy · All-time: 89.5% across all predictions
W4 Oct is still in progress, 83.1% so far (6/7 days)

How We Verify Predictions

Every prediction made by RailTC goes through a rigorous post-journey verification process. After the Indian Railways chart is prepared (typically 4 hours before departure), our system automatically fetches the final PNR status for every tracked ticket. We then compare the predicted confirmation likelihood against the actual outcome, whether the ticket was confirmed, remained waitlisted, or moved to RAC.

Only Safe and Risky predictions are counted towards our headline accuracy metric. Medium predictions are still verified and shown on this page, but they are not scored in the overall percentage so uncertain cases cannot inflate the number. The dashboard reports how many journeys are scored versus eligible.

Medium is treated as an uncertainty band today because late cancellations and charting dynamics can still swing outcomes. It is not claimed to be permanently unpredictable; improving instrumentation and model quality for this band is an active focus. See Methodology and llms.txt for the authoritative accounting rules.

This verification happens in real-time, as each journey completes and chart data becomes available, our accuracy numbers update automatically. We believe in full transparency: every prediction we make is tracked, verified, and reflected in the metrics you see on this page. No cherry-picking, no manual adjustments.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is accuracy calculated?

Our accuracy is calculated by dividing the number of correct Safe and Risky predictions by the total number of Safe and Risky predictions made. A prediction is "correct" when a Safe prediction results in a confirmed ticket, or when a Risky prediction results in a non-confirmed (waitlisted/RAC) outcome.

For example, if we made 100 Safe/Risky predictions and 87 matched the actual outcome after chart preparation, our accuracy would be 87%. Medium predictions are excluded from this calculation entirely.

Why is Medium excluded from accuracy?

Medium (Uncertain) predictions fall in the 50–60% confirmation probability range. Late cancellations, tatkal quota releases, and RAC movement can still swing these outcomes close to chart preparation, so the band is noisier than Safe or Risky.

We still verify and publish Medium outcomes publicly, but we exclude them from the headline accuracy percentage so borderline cases do not inflate or deflate the score. Improving Medium is an active modeling focus, not a claim that the band is permanently unpredictable.

How often is accuracy updated?

Accuracy is updated after every chart preparation. When Indian Railways prepares the reservation chart (usually 4 hours before departure), our automated system checks the final PNR status within minutes. The accuracy metrics on this page reflect the latest verified data in near real-time.

During peak travel seasons (festivals, holidays), dozens of charts are prepared daily across different trains, so you may see accuracy numbers change multiple times per day as new verifications come in.

What data sources are used?

RailTC uses multiple data sources to generate predictions: official IRCTC PNR status data, historical confirmation trends for specific routes and trains, seasonal patterns, quota utilization data, and waitlist movement velocity. Our model analyses these factors together to estimate confirmation probability.

For verification, we rely exclusively on official Indian Railways PNR status data obtained after chart preparation. This ensures our accuracy metrics are based on authoritative, tamper-proof outcomes rather than user-reported results.

Can I see individual prediction results?

Yes! The "Recent Verifications" section above shows the latest individual prediction outcomes. Each entry displays the train name, journey date, our prediction (Safe, Risky, or Medium), and the actual outcome (Confirmed, WL, or RAC). A green checkmark means the prediction was correct; a red cross means it was incorrect.

Medium predictions are shown with an amber indicator and are labeled "Not Counted" since they do not factor into accuracy calculations. You can scroll through recent results to see how our model performs across different trains and routes.

Explore More

Discover other tools and resources available on RailTC to help you make informed travel decisions.

MethodologyPre-Booking AnalysisLive Train StatusConnection RiskRead Our BlogAbout RailTC

RailTC Prediction Accuracy Summary

Overall accuracy: 89.5% on 129070 scored Safe+Risky journeys (39.7% of eligible Safe/Medium/Risky outcomes). Verified outcomes on record: 446036. Total PNRs tracked: 487295. Medium predictions are tracked but not scored in the headline figure.

Safe predictions accuracy: 94.2% (115579 predictions)

Risky predictions accuracy: 49.5% (13497 predictions)